It’s interesting how motorcycling develops in different countries. In the UK and a lot of Europe it’s all but dead except where there’s the need for outrageous performance and it’s acceptable to pay the price of a new car for the kind of go that will burn off a Porsche. The only good thing happening in the UK, as far as motorcycles go, is that the MOT test for cages is becoming so stringent that the excess of cheap older cars is likely to be radically diminished. It seems that only when there is an overwhelming difference between the cost of driving and riding, do motorcycles grab the public’s attention to any great extent.
Even the cyclical theory, that motorcycles go through boom and bust every ten years or so, has now come to naught in the UK. I think for each of the past few years the UK importers have been praying that sales surely can’t become any lower. Yet, except for ’94 when there was a slight increase with 45000 machines sold, they did exactly that. Such pessimism now feeds upon itself, with prices raised to defray huge overheats, the ever increasing cost of motorcycling putting more and more people off and the European manufacturers suddenly finding themselves able to compete on price.
In Italy (and France to a lesser extent) hordes of cheap mopeds allow young kids to hop around town with some kind of freedom until they are old and rich enough to move on to cars. The UK has no home industry to push for mopeds to be available to 14 year olds and, anyway, one suspects that the weather would not be so encouraging. Both race and Dakar replicas remain popular, the relative wealth of the populace allowing better sales than in the UK, where the only semblance of action is in the classic scene (out of misplaced patriotism) and the grey imports of nearly new motorcycles.
Europe as a whole is far from boom time, with the UK worse off than most. The northern countries are limited by the weather, motorcycles often put away for the winter and used as second vehicles, more leisure than practical wheels. Although ideal for the urban chaos they continue to be ignored as a practical means of transport, partly as a result of poor design which emphasizes their danger and impracticality (in cold, wet weather) and partly because they cost way too much even in the smaller sizes.
Any form of radical rethink is deemed too risky, the best the factories can offer are horrible crosses between step-thrus and scooters which don’t succeed in bettering their parents in any way other than style. Scooters do well in Italy because they have continued to evolve as effective transport at a reasonable price whereas the poor old step-thru has continued to price itself out of the market. Both forms of vehicle, aimed at either novice or at least non-committed riders, have some quite poor handling traits when the road surfaces turn nasty. A fairly typical paradox within the current state of motorcycle design.
It's not impossible for motorcycle manufacturers to react to the market they are servicing. Strong competition between factories chasing a large volume of consumers who can't afford four wheels combined with a relatively cheap and skilled workforce can add up to vast quantities of small but smart motorcycles being churned out. There comes a point in the cycle when the sheer scale of the enterprise allows falling prices (at least in real terms) and booming demand.
In Thailand, for instance, motorcycles rule supreme, millions of sub 150cc, mostly two stroke, bikes sold each year. At around a grand a throw, with easy monthly payments, it’s a vastly cheaper option than even second hand cars, which until recently high taxes made prohibitively expensive. Bangkok traffic jams make anything other than a two wheeler a silly choice although the heat and pollution really call for some air-conditioned caged nightmare.
One downside of such countries is that price competition, and relative ease of manufacture, means that two-strokes dominate the scene, with consequence excess of pollution, made all the more unacceptable by its visibility. Given that most cars spend hours idling in traffic jams (to run their air conditioners) when they are at their worst from the pollution point of view, the motorcycle should be seen as a Saviour as far as emissions go (the engines at least run properly and at efficient revs) but the constraints of price and power have yet to allow four stroke engines to emerge in many Asian markets.
The Philippines has the same problems as Thailand but it hasn't worked out quite like there because the cost of a new 125 is roughly equivalent to that of a secondhand car. Motorcycles are even rarer than in the UK, although the Filipino's driving style, which ignores the existence of any other vehicles, makes motorcycling very precarious, even compared to Bangkok where the drivers, mostly having had some motorcycle experience, are usually quite willing to concede to the superiority of two wheels in high density traffic.
The Japanese, by contrast, are so rich they can follow whatever whims they like, and the home market in both cars and bikes so strong that anything goes. The Japanese have even turned the second hand market in motorcycles, despite a killing exchange rate, into another export success. Government licensing has eliminated most bikes over 400cc and the density of the traffic, together with stringent parking laws, means that many a working bike is still used to carve a way through the terrible traffic jams.
This could be a reflection of the UK market eventually, where traffic and economic conditions became so vile that the compulsive use of motorcycles extends beyond that of typically mad DRs who scream around on highly unsuitable bikes, but it’s unlikely to happen until one of the factories decides to slash both its range of low end bikes and their prices, trying for a huge leap in sales. The way things are going anything’s worth a go!
Motorcycling is booming in places like Indonesia and Malaysia, where economic excesses, strong home production of reasonably priced bikes and massive traffic jams make two wheels more or less compulsory; at least for those who don't deal in drugs, armaments or work for the government (and can therefore afford cars). Motorcycling is also doing well in reformed Communist countries like China and Vietnam, where they are the first step up from bicycles on the transport ladder. In most of Eastern Europe the weather, by contrast, is so nasty for most of the time, and the home produced motorcycles so horrible in nature, that although many bikes have been made few people actually take much joy or pride in their biking and are only too happy to move on to cages when conditions allow.
India’s rather weird, with a huge market for home produced bikes, ranging from low end Japanese clones to the infamous Enfield Bullet, although there’s also a large range of cars produced and a surprisingly big middle class who have the dosh to purchase them. More than most places, the whole market is opening up to outside competition which could cause radical shifts in sales.
In the successful emerging Asian economies, of which there are rather a lot, motorcycle manufacturers have set up plants that spawn cheap but rather cheerful, stylish strokers that manage to combine low running costs with a bit of verve. They cost roughly half what they would in the UK but even that doesn’t explain the disparity in their success because the UK’s populace still earn more than twice that in many an emerging Far Eastern economy where house costs are even worse.
The US, by contrast, is defined by the continuing success of Harley Davidson, more as a leisure vehicle than anything else, but at least they have the excuse of vast distances and a car dominated culture. In the UK the motorcycle should be the natural vehicle of choice, given proper pricing and design! It continues to amaze me that the low end is dominated by dangerous dross that's more likely to send a novice rider screaming to the nearest used car dealer than convert him to the fold. What a huge missed opportunity!
Bill Fowler
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